The b-value of the Kelud Volcano in the Last Three Decades

¹ Physics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, UGM, 55281 Yogyakarta, Indonesia
² Geological Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, UGM, 55281 Yogyakarta, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: sintia_windhi@ugm.ac.id

Abstract

Kelud volcano is located in the Kediri sub-district, East Java Province, Indonesia. This volcano is still active, with total population, in the radius of 10 km, is around 10 thousand people. Kelud volcano is a popular tourist destination. On the weekend, total visitor can reach 5,000 people per-day. These people are at high risk when the Kelud volcano erupts. The last eruption of the Kelud volcano occurred in 2014 and was explosive eruption. Previously, there was an effusive eruption in 2007. These two types of eruption have its own geo hazard risk. Thus, predict the eruption type could help hazard mitigation. In this study, two data sets of earthquakes, 1990-2007 and 2008-2020, were analysed to determine the b-value and its relationship to the eruption type of the Kelud volcano. The calculation of the b-value uses the Gutenberg-Richter relationship. Calculation of the b-value in 2007, when there was an effusive eruption, showed a value of 2.27, while in 2014 (when there was an explosive eruption) was 1.85. After 2009, the curve of the b-value against time shows decrease. As a long term precursor of the Kelud activity, this b-value curve should be analysed continuously, besides volcano tectonic seismicity monitoring.