Forecast of COVID-19 cemetery land needs with system dynamics modeling

Disaster Management Study Program, National Security Faculty, Republic of Indonesia Defense University. IPSC Sentul Area, Bogor, West Java, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author : bondanhootowl@gmail.com

Abstract

As of June 30, 2021, Indonesia ranks third in Asia with the highest number of deaths due to COVID-19. One of the provinces in Indonesia, Central Java, is ranked third nationally in the accumulation of positive cases, recoveries, and deaths. Fulfilling the need for burial grounds for COVID-19 positive bodies needs attention because several countries and regions in Indonesia were experiencing a COVID-19 public cemetery land crisis. Sragen Regency is one area in Central Java designated as a red zone. The number of death cases is relatively high needs to ensure the availability of COVID-19 burial grounds. Therefore, this study aims to model the forecast for COVID-19 burial grounds. The approach used in this research is systems thinking, while the method used is system dynamics with Powersim software. Reference data for modeling is obtained from the http://corona.sragenkab.go.id page. The simulation results show the AME value of 4.7% or less than 5% so that the model is declared valid. Based on the Business as Usual (BAU) simulation, in the 20th week, it is estimated that there will be 320 deaths with a burial area of 961.13 m². Until the 20th week, the increase in COVID-19 Positive Population, Death, and Cemetery Land Needs on the graph of the BAU simulation results shows an exponential growth trend.