Model system dynamics potential impact of disasters due to the re-period of the October 25^th, 2010 earthquake in the Mentawai Islands

Disaster Management Study Program, National Security Faculty, Republic of Indonesia Defense University. IPSC Sentul Area, Bogor, West Java, Indonesia

^* Corresponding Author: aprilyanto80@gmail.com

Abstract

Geographically, the Mentawai Islands Regency has a territorial boundary with the sea. The north side is the Siberut Strait, the south side is bordered by the Indian Ocean, the east side is bordered by the Mentawai Strait, and the west side is bordered by the Indian Ocean. The Mentawai Islands Regency area has a high level of seismicity which makes it prone to earthquakes and tsunamis because it has an earthquake return period. Population and economic growth in the Mentawai Islands Regency continue to increase, resulting in a higher level of threat due to earthquakes and tsunamis to people and buildings. By using earthquake return period modeling based on secondary data and population and building growth modeling using system dynamics, Pentahelix can implement disaster risk mitigation in the Mentawai Islands Regency to reduce the risk of casualties and material losses. Based on the prediction that the Mentawai earthquake return period on October 25, 2010, will occur for 24 years to 57 years or around 2034 to 2067, and the results of system dynamics modeling with Powersim Studio 10 software, the number of vulnerable people affected is 24,764 people up to 42,944 people and potential losses. housing sector between 144.73 billion to 250.98 billion.