Robust Optimisation of Building Retrofits for Present versus Future Climate Scenarios in Humid Continental Climates (Dfb subtype) to Reduce Heating Demand and Mitigate Future Overheating Risk

Arup, Boston, USA

^* corresponding author: nick.swedberg@arup.com

Abstract

The outdoor environment is a major driver of building performance; a changing climate poses a significant challenge to the effective deployment of building retrofits. The Dfb Köppen climate zone, a humid continental climate with warm summer subtype, is poised to confront significant annual and seasonal temperature changes within the next thirty years. This study examined the relationship between retrofits’ ability to reduce heating demand and simultaneously mitigate future overheating risk. A low-rise apartment was used as the basis of a multi-objective design optimisation (MODO) that modelled building heating demand and overheating risk across a series of input variables, considered either optimisable (i.e.: building envelope upgrades) or non-optimisable (i.e.: occupancy profiles) in the context of this study. The metric overheating-degree-hours (OHDH) was utilised to assess overheating risk. The results of this study reinforced previous findings indicating envelope upgrades can significantly reduce heating demand, but also underscored the importance of implementing solar heat gain mitigation strategies for overheating risk reduction. Additionally, the study highlighted the appropriateness of amalgamated weather data for performance analysis.