Factors influencing carbon emissions of China’s construction industry: A dynamic analysis based on PVAR model

School of Civil Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, Sichuan, 611730, China

^* Corresponding author’s e-mail: xuqy678@foxmail.com

Abstract

Analyzing the effect of influencing factors on carbon emissions in the construction industry is significant for carbon emissions reduction. The effect of factors on carbon emissions are dynamic at various stages while the long-term dynamic impact has not been discussed in depth in most of the existing studies. Taking 30 provinces in China as examples, PVAR model is used to study the dynamic impact of influencing factors on carbon emissions. The influencing factors include building construction area, value of unit building area, indirect emissions intensity, carbon emissions per unit energy consumed, energy intensity and total factor productivity. The results indicate that building construction area, value of unit building area and total factor productivity have positive influence on carbon emissions. The long-term effect of building construction area is more significant. Moreover, carbon emissions per unit energy consumed and building construction area is the main factor of main outflow plate and main inflow plate respectively. This study provides recommendations for reducing emissions in the construction industry in provinces with different characteristics in China.