Keynote lecture. Towards reliability-management for debris flow risk assessment

Methods for Model-based Development in Computational Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, RWTH Aachen, DE-52062 Aachen, Germany

^* Corresponding author: kowalski@mbd.rwth-aachen.de

Abstract

Recent progress in data-integrated simulation methods excelled our understanding of debris flows including triggering mechanisms and dynamic run-out behavior. Research groups and geohazard practitioners worldwide successfully integrate advanced simulations into workflows for hazard mapping. However, many challenges remain in predictively applying such tools for accepted decision support. One reason is our lack of a systematic approach to managing the simulations’ reliability. In this contribution, we present results on an investigation to which extent the choice of data used for calibration influences the simulation’s reliability. We start with introducing building blocks of a modular and extendible data-integrated debris flow simulation toolchain developed by our group. Next, we introduce reliability as one quality measure of a holistic debris flow simulation and discuss how it can be assessed. Based on a synthetic example, we then show how different types of observed calibration data, such as impact area, deposit volume or localized velocity measurements impacts on the subsequent forward simulation’s posterior probability distribution, hence the simulation’s reliability. We conclude by discussing how linking a debris flow simulation’s reliability to type, scope and resolution of the calibration data could offer a novel pathway towards reliability management for debris flow risk assessment.