Debris Flow Hazard Mapping Along Linear Infrastructure: An Agent Based Model and GIS Approach

¹ Stantec Consulting Ltd., Geohazards and Geomorphology, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada
² Stantec Consulting Ltd., Geohazards and Geomorphology, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
³ Stantec Consulting Ltd., Geohazards and Geomorphology, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America

^* Corresponding author: graham.knibbs@stantec.com

Abstract

Often linear infrastructure, including rail, highways, and pipelines, span large geographic areas intersecting a variety of terrain, predisposing infrastructure to a higher likelihood of geohazard interaction. Debris flow models can be particularly advantageous in remote hazard and risk mapping along linear infrastructure as runout from susceptible slopes may extend considerable distance downslope to a receptor. In this sentiment, a method is developed using an agent-based model, DebrisFlow Predictor, in combination with geographic information software (GIS), to produce regional debris flow hazard and risk profiles along widespread corridors. Thousands of debris flows upslope of a receptor(s) are simulated in the model environment (i.e., model scenarios). Outputs of the modelled scenarios provide probabilistic spatial attributes of debris flow runout and depth across a digital elevation model at a 5m resolution. The outputs of multiple scenarios are mosaiced and corrected to in-situ temporal and spatial debris flow initiation conditions in GIS. The corrected scenario outputs provide a comprehensive hazard profile along the infrastructure alignment, that in turn can facilitate quantified vulnerability and risk calculations. Thousands of modelled debris flows throughout several physiographic regions of Canada and the United States of America, calibrated to local conditions, provide substantive support for a novel methodology to identify key hazard and risk locations to major linear infrastructure.