| Issue |
E3S Web of Conf.
Volume 415, 2023
8th International Conference on Debris Flow Hazard Mitigation (DFHM8)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 03009 | |
| Number of page(s) | 4 | |
| Section | Monitoring, Detection and Warning | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202341503009 | |
| Published online | 18 August 2023 | |
What does landslide triggering rainfall mean?
1 Stantec Consulting, Geohazards and Geomorphology, Calgary, Canada
2 Stantec Consulting, Geohazards and Geomorphology, Fort Collins, US
3 Stantec Consulting, Geohazards and Geomorphology, Burnaby, Canada
4 Stantec Consulting, Innovation, Washington, US
5 Jupiter Intelligence, California, US
* Corresponding author: richard.guthrie@stantec.com
Landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds are often subject to both false negatives (landslides where none are expected) and false positives (no landslides despite thresholds being exceeded). Debris flows and shallow landslides impact communities and infrastructures worldwide. Refinement of the relation between rainfall intensity and landslide occurrence would help remove the imprecise nature of this tool moving forward. Continuous 6-hour gridded precipitation data from over a five-year interval 900 km2, combined with a complete, time-constrained, landslide data base over the same period, are used to derive relations for the probability of shallow landslides with rainfall intensity measured over 6-hour, 12-hour, or 24-hour durations. Previously published and widely used thresholds are quantified in terms of landslide probability per unit area and demonstrate, for different sized study areas, the likelihood that at least one landslide will be initiated at different intensities and durations. Probabilistic distribution of landslides for a given study area and rainfall intensity can be easily derived using the binomial method from these relations.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2023
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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