Landuse Change Prediction on Super-Priority Tourism Destination in Labuan Bajo, Indonesia

Department of Geography, Faculty of Geography, Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta, Surakarta, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: as105@ums.ac.id

Abstract

Labuan Bajo recognized as one of the five super-priority tourism destinations established by the Indonesian President in 2019, has experienced a gradual increase in both tourist visits and infrastructure development over time. This development causes landuse changes around the tourism area to support tourism activities. The objectives of this research involve analyze of landuse change within Labuan Bajo Urban Area in 2011, 2017, 2023, and predict the landuse in 2029, analyze the factors influencing landuse change, and analyze the suitability of the predicted landuse in 2029 against the City Spatial Plan. This study employs spatiotemporal analysis using Ca-Markov and binary logistic regression model. The outcomes show that the change analysis reveals built-up areas expanded by 161 ha from 2011 to 2017, expanded by 246 ha from 2017 to 2023, and projected to increase to 267 ha in 2029. This reveals a substantial rise landuse change from 2017 to 2023. According to the model, the most influential driving variables on landuse change are the distance to tourist attractions, followed by collector roads, restaurants, arterial roads, transportation infrastructure, and hotels. The landuse suitability against the City Spatial Plan is suitable for 14.791 ha (98,5%), sufficient for 131 ha (1%), and unsuitable for 66 ha (0,5%). The substantial increase requires continuous monitoring to identify the direction of change. This research provides valuable perspectives on how elements of tourism development contribute to the dynamics of landuse transformation in the tourism area.