Soil carbon and land use dynamics in the greater part of Cerrado biome, Brazil

¹ Department of Soil Science “Luiz de Queiroz” College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, Piracicaba, SP 13418-900, Brazil.
² Department of Environmental Management, Federal University of Technology, Owerri, Nigeria.
³ Spatial and Data science society of Nigeria, Abuja. Nigeria.
⁴ Department of remote sensing and geographical information system, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria.
⁵ Center for Carbon Research in Tropical Agriculture (CCARBON), University of São Paulo, Piracicaba, SP 13418-900, Brazil.

^* Corresponding author: cnwaogu@gmail.com

Abstract

This study is aimed at assessing the dynamics of soil carbon (C) and land-use in the greater part of Cerrado biome between 2015 and 2020, and to predict the future scenario. Increasing anthropogenic activities, especially agriculture, has significantly impacted land-use, consequently the balance inflow and outflow of carbon under different land use. Data on soil C, land use-land cover (LULC), and other variables were collected from USGS EarthData, FAO, and Mapbiomas. By applying support vector machine and InVEST models, we identified the LULC and quantified the soil C stocks under each land use. Pastures (2,016,793 km²) and savanna (1,789,150 km²) covered more than 70% of entire biome. Significant landuse transitions occurred between 2015 and 2025 with croplands increasing by more than 10% in area. Integrated agricultural system (IAS) accounted for ~ 40% more SOC stock than business as usual (BAU). Unlike the BAU which involves the conventional farming systems, the IAS is a low-carbon agricultural practice which serves as a nature-based solution to enhance C sequestration. The findings from the study might contribute to closing the gap in knowledge about soil C stocks in the region, and in smart-climate agriculture agendas to improve carbon stocks, food security and other SDGs.