Quantitative assessment of personal risk during storm surge disaster

¹ College of Oceanography and Space Informatics China University of Petroleum (East China) Qingdao, China
² First Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural Resources of China Qingdao, China

^a sumingzhang@s.upc.edu.cn
^b zhangjie@upc.edu.cn
^* Corresponding author: lixiaomin@fio.org.cn

Abstract

Storm surge is the most severe marine disaster in China, threatening the lives of coastal residents. Quantitative assessment of personal risk is an important prerequisite for identifying risk areas and designing emergency strategies. This paper aims to propose an economical and efficient quantitative assessment method for personal risk under storm surge disasters, including the assessment of the affected population and emergency relocation population, as well as their number and distribution. Remote Sensing products and Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies are used to form a technical framework, including the method of inundation scenario construction and personal risk assessment, which is realized by GIS spatial analysis. Based on the technical framework, the personal risk caused by “Hato” in Guangdong was assessed. The results show that the affected population is concentrated in the Pearl River Delta and dispersed in surrounding cities. The number of the affected population is assessed as 1,032,455, with an accuracy of 91.48%. The emergency relocation population is concentrated in the coastal areas of Guangzhou, Dongguan and Zhuhai, which have high population density and are far from the safety or partial safety zone. The number of the emergency relocation population is assessed as 199,973, with an accuracy of 87.25%. “Hato” verified that this method is economical, efficient, and accurate. It is expected to enrich and develop the theories and methods of personal risk assessment.