Dust migration from expanding deserts near Amudarya: Modeling and assessment

¹ Karakalpak State University, Nukus, Uzbekistan
² Karakalpak Branch of the Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Nukus, Uzbekistan

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

The Lower Amudarya Oasis (Karakalpakstan) is increasingly affected by atmospheric dust due to surrounding desert expansion. This study examines long-term and seasonal dust migration patterns, with key drivers including wind dynamics, vegetation degradation, precipitation trends, and desertification processes. Statistical modeling, GIS analysis, and remote sensing data (1961–2024) were applied to quantify near-surface (0– 3 m) dust concentrations across the region. Results indicate a rise in high-velocity wind events alongside declining precipitation and vegetative cover, particularly during warm seasons. Spatial analysis identified the northern and western oasis margins as dust hotspots, highlighting intensifying desertification impacts. These findings contribute to improved environmental monitoring and public health strategies in arid regions.