The Influence of Particulate Matter Concentration on Health Diseases in Southeastern Türkiye: Source Regions and Associated Synoptic Conditions

¹ Hamidiye Faculty of Health Sciences, Department of Occupational Health and Safety, University of Health Sciences, Istanbul, Türkiye
² Institute of Earth and Marine Sciences, Gebze Technical University, Gebze, Kocaeli, Türkiye

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of PM₁₀ concentrations on asthma diagnoses. A Generalized Additive Model with a quasi-Poisson link was constructed to assess the effect of PM₁₀ concentrations on asthma for different age groups (child: 15–34, adult: 35–64, elderly >64 yr). The lag effects of PM₁₀ concentrations were investigated using the Distributed Lag Non-Linear Model. During the 2014-2018 period, asthma diagnoses due to PM₁₀ exposure were most frequently observed in adults. A 10 µg/m³ increase in PM₁₀ was found to be significant between lag0 and lag2. The highest value was observed at lag0 with an RR of 1.0027 (95% CI: 1.001–1.004). When examining relative risk values by age, a significant association was determined between lag0 and lag3, with the highest values observed in the adult age group (RR: 1.0029, 95% CI: 1.0010–1.0048) and in elderly people (>64 yr, RR: 1.0028, 95% CI: 1.0029–1.0053). From the external factors, Saharan originated dust significantly contributes to high PM₁₀ concentrations, from the HYSPLIT backward trajectory results. The role of surface low over Italy and Cyprus, and strong southerly winds at the mid-level of the atmosphere play significant role in transferring suspended dust particles to southeastern of Türkiye.