Transport-logistic clusters’ passenger and cargo flows long term predictive modelling

¹ State University “Kyiv Aviation Institute”, Air Transportation Management Department, 1 Liubomyra Huzara Ave., Kyiv, Ukraine
² Kharkiv National Automobile and Highway University, Transport Systems and Logistics Department, 25 Yaroslava Mudrogo St., Kharkiv, Ukraine
³ State University “Kyiv Aviation Institute”, Management of Foreign Economic Activity of Enterprises Department, 1 Liubomyra Huzara ave, Kyiv, Ukraine

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

The relevance of the research is determined by the need for a long-term vision of the development of transport-logistics clusters and the needs that arise from the need to model flows. The methodological basis of the research is provided by a number of methods of mathematical modeling and expert judgment. The scientific novelty of the research lies in the mathematical description of the SARIMAX and LSTM models for the implementation of the tasks set, as well as in the implementation of a system for long-term predictive modeling of passenger and cargo flows in transport-logistics clusters with a description of its advantages. All this allowed us to solve the tasks set in full and ensure the realization of the research objective.