E3S Web Conf.
Volume 7, 20163rd European Conference on Flood Risk Management (FLOODrisk 2016)
|Number of page(s)||10|
|Section||Probability of floods and storms|
|Published online||20 October 2016|
Synthetic events for flood risk calculation by using a nested Copula structure
International Marine and Dredging Consultants, Antwerp, Belgium
a Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
Risk analysis requires considering the entire frequency domain of flood consequences. Synthetic events were generated for the entire river system of the Scheldt estuary. This estuary contains multiple navigable waterways and is situated in Belgium and the Netherlands. Extreme water levels are influenced by rainfall-runoff discharges, tiding, storm surges, and wind speed and direction. For the generation of hydraulic boundary conditions for flood risk assessment, these influences and their mutual dependencies and correlations are taken into account by means of a nested extreme value copula structure. The variation in time is taken into account by standardized profiles, computed by normalizing all recorded extreme events and fitting a probability distribution to the variation of the standardized events, yielding 5 profile classes through another stratification. Eventually this resulted in a total of 1920 sets of synthetic events. All events were run through the hydrodynamic model of the river system. The frequency distribution of the resulting water levels are calculated by accumulation of the corresponding probabilities of occurrence of the synthetic events at each location. The methodology has the advantage that it determines a statistical distribution of consequences, rather than assigning frequencies to hydrodynamic boundary conditions.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2016
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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