E3S Web Conf.
Volume 38, 20182018 4th International Conference on Energy Materials and Environment Engineering (ICEMEE 2018)
|Number of page(s)||4|
|Section||Environmental Science and Environmental Engineering|
|Published online||04 June 2018|
Linking Structural Equation Modelling with Bayesian Network and Coastal Phytoplankton Dynamics in Bohai Bay
Laboratory of Waterway Environmental Protection Technology, Tianjin Water Transport Engineering Science Research Institute, Tianjin 300456, China
* Corresponding author Yue Yang: firstname.lastname@example.org
Bayesian networks (BN) have many advantages over other methods in ecological modelling and have become an increasingly popular modelling tool. However, BN are flawed in regard to building models based on inadequate existing knowledge. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new method that links BN with structural equation modelling (SEM). In this method, SEM is used to improve the model structure for BN. This method was used to simulate coastal phytoplankton dynamics in Bohai Bay. We demonstrate that this hybrid approach minimizes the need for expert elicitation, generates more reasonable structures for BN models and increases the BN model’s accuracy and reliability. These results suggest that the inclusion of SEM for testing and verifying the theoretical structure during the initial construction stage improves the effectiveness of BN models, especially for complex eco-environment systems. The results also demonstrate that in Bohai Bay, while phytoplankton biomass has the greatest influence on phytoplankton dynamics, the impact of nutrients on phytoplankton dynamics is larger than the influence of the physical environment in summer. Furthermore, despite the Redfield ratio indicating that phosphorus should be the primary nutrient limiting factor, our results indicate that silicate plays the most important role in regulating phytoplankton dynamics in Bohai Bay.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2018.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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