E3S Web Conf.
Volume 51, 20182018 3rd International Conference on Advances on Clean Energy Research (ICACER 2018)
|Number of page(s)||6|
|Section||Solar Energy Utilization and Power Generation Technology|
|Published online||24 August 2018|
Very-short term solar power generation forecasting based on trend-additive and seasonal-multiplicative smoothing methodology
Ural Federal University named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin,
620002 Mira str. 19,
* Corresponding author: email@example.com
In conditions of development of generating facilities on renewable energy sources, the technology runs up to uncertainty in the operational and short-term planning of the power system operating modes. To date, reliable tools for forecasting the generation of solar power stations are required. This paper considers the methodology of operational forecasting of solar power stations output based on the mathematical apparatus of cubic exponential smoothing with trend and seasonal components. The presented methodology was tested based on the measuring data of a real solar power station. The average forecast error was not more than 10% for days with variable clouds and not more than 3% for clear days, which indicates the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
© The authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2018
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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