| Issue |
E3S Web Conf.
Volume 79, 2019
International Symposium on Architecture Research Frontiers and Ecological Environment (ARFEE 2018)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 03022 | |
| Number of page(s) | 5 | |
| Section | Study on Energy Sources and Ecological Environment Engineering | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20197903022 | |
| Published online | 15 January 2019 | |
Flood frequency analysis for annual maximum streamflow using a non-stationary GEV model
School of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 430074 Wuhan, PR China
* Corresponding author: kling@hust.edu.cn
Under changing environment, the streamflow series in the Yangtze River have undergone great changes and it has raised widespread concerns. In this study, the annual maximum flow (AMF) series at the Yichang station were used for flood frequency analysis, in which a time varying model was constructed to account for non-stationarity. The generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was adopted to fit the AMF series, and the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) framework was applied for parameter estimation. The non-stationary return period and risk of failure were calculated and compared for flood risk assessment between stationary and non-stationary models. The results demonstrated that the flow regime at the Yichang station has changed over time and a decreasing trend was detected in the AMF series. The design flood peak given a return period decreased in the non-stationary model, and the risk of failure is also smaller given a design life, which indicated a safer flood condition in the future compared with the stationary model. The conclusions in this study may contribute to long-term decision making in the Yangtze River basin under non-stationary conditions.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2019
This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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