E3S Web Conf.
Volume 81, 2019The 1st International Symposium on Water Resource and Environmental Management (WREM 2018)
|Number of page(s)||7|
|Published online||30 January 2019|
Stochastic Time series analysis of Runoff data of the Blue Nile at Eldeim, Sudan
Faculty of Geoscience and Environmental Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, China
2 Faculty ofWater and Environmental Engineering, Sudan University of Science and Technology, Sudan
3 School of transportation and logistics engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, China
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To improve the management of operation system for the Roseires reservoir it is necessary to know the hydrological system of the Blue Nile river, which is the main water source of the reservoir. In this work, a Modified Thomas Fiering model for generating and forecasting monthly flow is used. The methodological procedure is applied on the data obtained at the gauging station of Eldeim in Blue Nile, Sudan. The study uses the monthly flows data for years 1965 to 2009. After estimation the model parameters, the synthetic time series of monthly flows are simulated. The results revealed that the model maintained most of the basic statistical descriptive parameters of historical data. Also, the Modified Thomas Fiering model is applied to predict the values of the next fifty-five years, with excellent results that conserved most basic statistical characteristics of runoff historical series. The Modified Thomas Fiering model is able to realistically reconstruct and predict the annual data and shows promising statistical indices.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2019
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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