A new approach to the mathematical model of thermal energy balance

Moscow State University of Civil Engineering, Yaroslavskoe shosse, 26, Moscow, 129337, Russia

^* Corresponding author: keh2@bk.ru

Abstract

Formation of balance of thermal energy and the heat carrier for a thermal network is carried out for the purpose of increase of efficiency of work of the heat supplying organization. The standard approach proposes to write off the difference between the released and realized heat energy for heat losses. The article proposes a new approach to the formation of the balance of thermal energy and coolant. It includes statistical analysis of telemetry data relating to the released thermal energy. Heat consumption was estimated by contractual load for heating, ventilation and hot water supply. In the mathematical model of the thermal balance for each term weight coefficients were introduced. To obtain the numerical values of these coefficients, the method of least squares was used. The results of checking the adequacy of mathematical models that take into account or neglect thermal losses are presented. The obtained coefficients for the mathematical model of heat balance were used for the mathematical model of mass balance. The results can be used to predict the cost of production and transmission of heat energy and coolant, to assess the efficiency of the heat network and the formation of tariff applications for the future.