Stochastic optimization of carbon mitigation path in Shenzhen based on uncertainty of power demand

School of Environment and Energy, Peking University, Nanshan District, Shenzhen, China

^* Corresponding author: tianyushen1211@pku.edu.cn

Abstract

The core elements of urban carbon emission mitigation optimization path include structural adjustment, low energy supply, technological innovation, and enhanced energy demand management and improvement. How to optimize the combination of these factors to achieve the city’s emission mitigation goals at the lowest cost is very important to study the path of urban low-carbon development. Due to many factors involved, it is difficult to solve this problem by building a mathematical optimization model that includes all the elements. This paper minimizes the total cost of emission mitigations in various departments in Shenzhen, combines the uncertainty of parameters and constraints, and uses mathematically standardized method to establish a stochastic optimization model for urban carbon emissions paths. Considering the uncertainty of energy demand, the optimal promotion rate of technical measures of the city’s various departments in the stochastic optimization model during the planning period can be obtained, and the optimal solution of the city’s low-carbon development optimization path can be formed.