Logical-probabilistic and simulation modeling as a toolkit for complex analysis and risk management of a cargo port

Astrakhan State Technical University, 16, Tatischeva st., Astrakhan, 414056, Russia

^* Corresponding author: i.o.bondareva@gmail.com

Abstract

The paper presents a structural model of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of a cargo port, supplemented by several levels of consideration. The model of scenarios of all existing significant risks is developed. The hybrid logical-probabilistic model, the cascade logicalprobabilistic model and the multi-level cascade hybrid LP-model of the risk of failure to achieve the main strategic goal of the port are proposed. The main idea is to link together the technology of formalizing risks using the constructed logical and probabilistic models and simulation modeling, the interpretation of the results of which is possible using LP-models and scenarios. The proposed models allow to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of a cargo port based on the scenario formalization of risks of various management levels, as well as to simplify the process of interpreting the results of simulation modeling taking into account external factors of influence. Complex using of all this models allows to develop timely informed management decisions.