Issue |
E3S Web Conf.
Volume 224, 2020
Topical Problems of Agriculture, Civil and Environmental Engineering (TPACEE 2020)
|
|
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Article Number | 02027 | |
Number of page(s) | 11 | |
Section | Information Technologies for Environmental Sustainability | |
DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202022402027 | |
Published online | 23 December 2020 |
Logical-probabilistic and simulation modeling as a toolkit for complex analysis and risk management of a cargo port
Astrakhan State Technical University, 16, Tatischeva st., Astrakhan, 414056, Russia
* Corresponding author: i.o.bondareva@gmail.com
The paper presents a structural model of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of a cargo port, supplemented by several levels of consideration. The model of scenarios of all existing significant risks is developed. The hybrid logical-probabilistic model, the cascade logicalprobabilistic model and the multi-level cascade hybrid LP-model of the risk of failure to achieve the main strategic goal of the port are proposed. The main idea is to link together the technology of formalizing risks using the constructed logical and probabilistic models and simulation modeling, the interpretation of the results of which is possible using LP-models and scenarios. The proposed models allow to carry out a comprehensive analysis of the risk of failure to achieve the strategic goal of a cargo port based on the scenario formalization of risks of various management levels, as well as to simplify the process of interpreting the results of simulation modeling taking into account external factors of influence. Complex using of all this models allows to develop timely informed management decisions.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2020
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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