System analysis of a polluted dynamic system of natural waters taking into account risks

Irkutsk National Research Technical University, 83, Lermontov str., 664074, Irkutsk, Russia

^* Corresponding author: vertin@bk.ru

Abstract

The purpose of the study. A systematic study of the urgent problem of pollution of the natural water system and the evolution of water protection zones (boundaries), taking into account their dynamism and risks. A systematic approach is important not only because of the complex consideration of problems, but also to ensure the task of making systemic environmental decisions. Methods. The article uses the methods of systems analysis, statistical analysis, modeling, decision-making, optimization, classification (taxonomy) and risk management systems. Results. A system analysis has been carried out, on the basis of which procedures (algorithms) for modeling the system, algorithmic evaluation of the effectiveness of monitoring of water protection zones, dynamic water systems have been developed. The identification of the linear form from the nonlinear basic functions of the contribution of each pollution factor is used, taking into account the weight coefficients. An approach to the classification of water protection zones according to “tension” (taxonomic analysis) is also proposed. Conclusion. The performed system analysis takes into account the behavior of key (control) factors. This is necessary for the study of all subsystems - organizational and legal, socio-economic, environmental, technological, methodological support (education, consulting, training), etc. The results of the analysis and algorithms will make it possible to evaluate the parameters of water protection works, to solve various practical problems (for example, identification of the contribution to total pollution of each pollutant).