Simulation modeling in assessing the agricultural enterprise state in an emergency

¹ Samara State Agrarian University, 446442 Kinel, Russian Federation
² K.G. Razumovsky Moscow State University of technologies and management, 109004 Moscow, Russian Federation
³ Yury Gagarin State Technical University of Saratov, 410054 Saratov, Russian Federation

^* Corresponding author: zskirill@mail.ru

Abstract

The article proposes a methodology for assessing the sufficiency of financial resources in an emergency. The purpose of the study is to develop a methodology based on the method of simulation modeling to assess the sufficiency of resources and the sustainability of an agricultural enterprise in the event of an emergency. This set of methods for assessing the availability of enterprise financial resources for overcoming emergencies was implemented using algorithms for simulation of enterprise financial flows and their assessment in the program for investment calculations Project Expert 7.19. The program allows you to build simulation models of an enterprise, regardless of their industry and specificity. With the help of this software complex, it is possible not only to build a simulation model of an enterprise, but also to carry out its statistical evaluation. Together with the proposed method of detailing the initial data of annual financial and economic documents, this set of methods is a powerful tool for building and evaluating simulation models of agricultural and other enterprises, taking into account fluctuations in cash flow values during the year. Thus, the accuracy of the estimates obtained is significantly increased in comparison with methods based on the analysis of relative indicators or coefficients.