Short Time Solar Power Forecasting Using Persistence Extreme Learning Machine Approach

¹ School of Automation, Department of Automation Science and Technology, Central South University, 410012 Changsha, China
² School of Information Science and Engineering, Jishou University, 416000 Jishou, China

^* Corresponding author: yaosun@csu.edu.cn

Abstract

Solar energy in nature is irregular, so photovoltaic (PV) power performance is intermittent, and highly dependent on solar radiation, temperature and other meteorological parameters. Accurately predicting solar power to ensure the economic operation of micro-grids (MG) and smart grids is an important challenge to improve the large-scale application of PV to traditional power systems. In this paper, a hybrid machine learning algorithm is proposed to predict solar power accurately, and Persistence Extreme Learning Machine(P-ELM) algorithm is used to train the system. The input parameters are the temperature, sunshine and solar power output at the time of i, and the output parameters are the temperature, sunshine and solar power output at the time i+1. The proposed method can realize the prediction of solar power output 20 minutes in advance. Mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) are used to characterize the performance of P-ELM algorithm, and compared with ELM algorithm. The results show that the accuracy of P-ELM algorithm is better in short-term prediction, and P-ELM algorithm is very suitable for real-time solar energy prediction accuracy and reliability.