| Issue |
E3S Web Conf.
Volume 306, 2021
The First International Conference on Assessment and Development of Agricultural Innovation (1st ICADAI 2021)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 01011 | |
| Number of page(s) | 16 | |
| Section | Plant Science | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202130601011 | |
| Published online | 24 September 2021 | |
The projection of rice production in Java Island to support Indonesia as the world food granary
1 Indonesian Agro-climate and Hydrology Research Institute
2 Bandung Institute of Technology
3 Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency
* Corresponding author: elsarakhmi@gmail.com
The use of climate projections such as Cordex-SEA with crop simulation models can determine the projections of rice productivity in the future especially to meet the Indonesian vision as world food granary by 2045.This study aimed to 1) evaluate the projection of rice productivity and 2) compile a map of projected changes at the district level in Java Island in 2021-2035 and 2036-2050 for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) results based on the CSIROMK3.6 climate projection model for both scenarios in 2021-2035 showed that the impact of high productivity was high during the rainy season compared to the dry season. Districts with the increase of productivity indicate that these areas can be maintained or developed for rice crop. For the RCP4.5 scenario (rainy season) in the irrigated area, 41 districts out of 191 districts in Java Island had the class of up-high productivity changes. For the period of 2036 to 2050, there were fewer districts that had up-high productivity changes. The APSIM simulation results using HadGEM2 climate projections indicated more districts had decreased productivity in both year periods for both scenarios.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2021
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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