Diffusion Model of Various Modifications of an Innovative Product

Siberian Federal University, pr.Svobodny 79\10, Krasnoyarsk, 660041, Russia

^* Corresponding author: ak_moskalev@mail.ru

Abstract

Digitalization entails the application of digital technologies to a wide range of existing tasks and enables solution of new tasks. This article is based on data sets on current sales volumes of innovative products to forecast their future sales. The first stage is applying the innovation diffusion in the F. Bass model to calculate the diffusion coefficients of different modifications of Sony’s PlayStation. To estimate factors which influence innovation and related results within firms, the company IMPRINTA producing 3D printers was surveyed. It is shown that taking into account technical parameters, a cascade diffusion model of product innovation is the best for describing the process of product realization. The information obtained from the diffusion analysis of two 3D printer models can be used to improve the efficiency of key business processes, including production, procurement, marketing and advertising. The use of the diffusion model made it possible to generate three different scenarios for the release and promotion of a new modification of one of the 3D printer models depending on the selected niche, the time of market launch and the intensity of the marketing and advertising campaign. Each scenario enables adjusting the cost and technical parameters of the future modification.