| Issue |
E3S Web Conf.
Volume 335, 2022
The 2nd International Conference on Environmentally Sustainable Animal Industry (The 2nd ICESAI 2021)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 00016 | |
| Number of page(s) | 6 | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202233500016 | |
| Published online | 14 January 2022 | |
Using fuzzy time series with and without markov chain: to forecast of edible bird nest exported from Indonesia
1 Faculty of Animal Science, Universitas Brawijaya, Jl. Veteran, Malang 65145, Indonesia
2 Animal Feed and Nutrition Modelling Research Group (AFENUE), Department of Animal Nutrition and Feed Technology, Faculty of Animal Science, IPB University, Bogor 16680, Indonesia
* Corresponding author: osfar@ub.ac.id
Edible bird nest (EBN) were traditional medicine consumed by the Tiongkok. This study compared two-algorithm method. Fuzzy time series and Markov chain as forecast method the number of bird nest exported from Indonesia. The secondary data between 2012 and 2018 were from Bureau Central Statistic (BPS). The scope using in this study were bird nest between 2012 until 2018, with a unit of volume kilograms (Kg). Used secondary export data, collected from BPS of Indonesia. Data were analysed using Fuzzy Time Series with and without Markov Chain using R Studio. The result showed that Fuzzy Time Series with and without Markov Chain method performs better in the forecasting ability in short-term period prediction and the values of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) tends to be smaller than the Fuzzy Time Series without Markov Chain. It can be concluded the number of exported can be used Fuzzy time series.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2022
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