Development of regional climate model for Hyogo prefecture, Japan using statistical downscaling method on CanESM2 RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios

¹ Environmental Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering and Green Technology, Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman, 31900, Kampar, Perak, Malaysia
² Centre for Urban Safety and Security, Kobe University, 1 Rokkodaicho, Nada Ward, Kobe, Hyogo 657-0013, Japan

^* Corresponding author: tankokweng@utar.edu.my

Abstract

For decades, climate models have been used to understand the present and historical climates, especially global climate models (GCMs). They are used to understand the interaction between climate system processes and forecast future climates. However, the issue of low resolution and accuracy often lead to inadequacy in capturing the variations in climate variables related to impact assessment. In order to capture the local climate changes in Hyogo Prefecture, a regional climate modelling based on Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) was applied using the statistical downscaling technique. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 were used in generating future climate models. The reliability of three models was tested with linear regression, Pearson correlation, probability density function (PDF) and Cronbach Alpha. A moderate relationship between rainfall data and RCP4.5 was found in all chosen stations. Spatial analysis outcome showed that there is a possibility of decreased annual rainfall in the North-eastern (which city/town) and South-western (which city/town?) regions in Hyogo Prefecture.