Medium- and long-term power load forecasting model

¹ Yongchuan Power Supply Branch, State Grid Chongqing Electric Power Company, Chongqing, 402160, China
² North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China

Abstract

Power load is an important part of power system, and power load forecasting has an important impact on power system analysis, design and control. With the development of smart micro grid, load forecasting has gradually become an important module in the energy management system, It is “source, network, load and storage” “An important link in energy flow matching. The staged combined demand forecasting model of power grid based on neural network and polynomial regression is adopted, and judgment conditions are added to the neural network. If the training sample data does not converge in the neural network training process, the neural network forecasting is terminated, and the data is automatically transferred to the polynomial regression model to obtain the forecasting results. This method can be initially used for annual and monthly load forecasting. It is an intelligent micro grid The planning of has laid a certain technical foundation.