Risk modeling in the aviation industry as a factor of sustainable development

¹ National Research University Higher School of Economics, 16, ul. Souyza Pechatnikov, Saint Petersburg, 190008, Russian Federation,
² Moscow State Technical University of Civil Aviation, 20 Kronshtadtsky blvd, Moscow, 125993, Russia
³ Moscow State University of Civil Engineering, Yaroslavskoye shosse, 26, Moscow, 129337, Russia

^* Corresponding author: markovskaya@yandex.ru

Abstract

Research by leading economists has revealed that risks in the aviation industry affect the forecasting models of regional sustainable development. The current study is devoted to the development of approaches to risk assessment on the example of European airlines. This problem has become very problematic after several recent financial crises, when airlines around the world were going through difficult times, and dozens of them had to go bankrupt, receive financial assistance from governments or find their salvation in mergers or acquisitions with larger players in the market with the support of governments. Since the beginning of the pandemic, airlines around the world have faced many more serious problems that have forced them to stop most of their passenger flights due to restrictions aimed at reducing the incidence. Unlike other financial crises, the pandemic faces the most serious problem of uncertainty, since it is difficult to predict how the virus will behave and when it will stop. This study is aimed at developing approaches that can help identify and predict possible airline risks and establish regulatory values of significant indicators for this industry in Europe.