| Issue |
E3S Web of Conf.
Volume 384, 2023
Rudenko International Conference “Methodological Problems in Reliability Study of Large Energy Systems” (RSES 2022)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 01023 | |
| Number of page(s) | 8 | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202338401023 | |
| Published online | 26 April 2023 | |
Hidden Markov Model and States Prediction of an Autonomous Wind-Diesel Complex
1 Sevastopol State University, Department of Higher Mathematics, 299053 Sevastopol, Russia
2 Sevastopol State University, Department of Higher Mathematics, 299053 Sevastopol, Russia
3 Sevastopol State University, Department of Technological Processes and Production Automation, 299053 Sevastopol, Russia
* Corresponding author: xaevec@mail.ru
The problem of assessing the reliability and analyzing the functioning of an autonomous winddiesel complex, consisting of a wind power plant, working and standby diesel generators, an inverter and a storage battery, is considered. First, a semi-Markov model of an autonomous wind-diesel complex is built, which makes it possible to calculate the stationary and temporal reliability characteristics. Then, on its basis, a hidden Markov model is developed, which is used to solve the problems of predicting and evaluating its characteristics, taking into account the given parameters and the signal vector. The results of the study are obtained in a general form and are invariant with respect to the laws of distribution of random variables describing the elements of an autonomous wind-diesel complex. They allow you to simulate the functioning of the system under various distribution laws, based on statistical data, without modifying the model itself.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2023
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