Large-scale transport projects: tools to transform qualitative into quantitative assessment

¹ Institute of Economics and Industrial Engineering of the Siberian Branch of the RAS, 630090, 17 Academician Lavrentyev Avenue, Novosibirsk, Russian Federation
² Siberian Transport University, 630049, 191 Dusi Kovalchuk str., Novosibirsk, Russian Federation

^* Corresponding author: procedure@inbox.ru

Abstract

Decision-making tools for large-scale transport projects are the subject of research in this paper. The purpose of this paper is to improve decision-making techniques for loosely structured problems and to demonstrate the results of experimental calculations on the example of a large-scale transport project. The methods of the research are the methods of system analysis: expert technologies that are being improved in the course of the research; method of scenarios; for construction of problem hierarchy, goal tree; criteria priorities; and criteria of decision-making theory (Wald, Savage, Hurwicz, Bayes, Laplace). The study has established three criteria for assessing the effectiveness of the Barentskomur railway project (the project of the railway connecting Indiga port and Surgut); it has revealed the priorities of the criteria for assessing the effectiveness of the project in three different scenarios of external environment development: optimistic, pessimistic, and the most probable in a quantitative scale. The survey of experts was carried out. A new approach to the significance of the general goal of the project has been proposed. The quantitative estimations of significance of two different alternatives of realization of the project in various scenarios are received. The results have led to the conclusion that the Barentskomur 2 project should be implemented, because there is a high degree of uncertainty in the world, and in this case the most “cautious” Wald criterion should be used. Not only do we need to con-sider scenarios and immerse alternatives in those scenarios, but in the case of large-scale transport projects we also need to consider the impact that the project has on the scenario, due to its scale.