Exploring extreme value analysis of rainfall for some nuclear power plant sites in India

¹ VIIT Civil Engineering Department, Pune, India
² Nuclear Recycle Board, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai 400094, India
³ Homi Bhabha National Institute, Mumbai 400094, India

Abstract

Extreme rainfall is an important consideration for safety of nuclear installations. Literature reported estimation of the same for Indian nuclear power plant sites using Gumbel and Frechet distributions, fitted by least square (graphical) method (LSM). In these reports, the goodness-of-fit was examined graphically by plots on probability papers. In this study, the data for six nuclear sites collected from literature were analysed. For this purpose, in addition to Gumbel and Frechet, other distributions were included and the parameters of the distributions were evaluated using Lieblein technique and maximum likelihood estimation, as well as LSM. The goodness-of-fit was evaluated using the quantitative tool: Anderson-Darling test; and qualitative tools: probability plot and quantile plot – which are suitable for evaluating goodness-of-fit of extreme value distributions. Maximum daily rainfall for return periods of 50, 100 and 1000 years were reported from the fitted distributions. Comparison with the respective values (50 and 100 year return period) from literature demonstrated that the extreme rainfall reported for these sites were quite accurate with maximum variation within ten per cent.