Development of model for forecasting and controlling the debt burden in a commercial organization

¹ Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, 195251 Saint Petersburg, Russia
² Institute of Economics after M. Qotanyan of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia, 0015 Yerevan, Armenia
³ Rostov State University of Economics (RINH), Rostov-on-Don, Russia

^* Corresponding author: nmukhanova@spbstu.ru

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant negative impact on the state of commercial organizations in the real sector. Therefore, the development of new solutions in forecasting and monitoring the functioning of organizations and their implementation in practice are vital to overcome the crisis. The main purpose of this article is to specify the marginal ranges of indicators of the debt burden of a particular commercial organization characterizing the correlation between the components of capital structure and indicators characterizing the level of security of liabilities with the assets of the organization on the basis of the results of prediction of the developed training model of the behavioral theory of capital by the method of matrices. One of the main advantages of the proposed approach is the determination of marginal ranges in line with the predicted preferred variants of liabilities for the sets of indicators assessing the debt burden. Within the scope of this article, this method has been carried out for an Armenian brandy company “Proshyan Brandy Factory” LLC. Using this model will, in the future, enable to determine common marginal ranges of indicators underlying the development of financial policy for a particular commercial organization in terms of the components of solvency, liquidity, business activity, profitability and creditworthiness.