Forecasting the prospects for the development of regional small business

Termez State University, Barkamol Avlod, 43, 190111, Termez, Uzbekistan

^* Corresponding author: saodattoshalieva2004@mail.ru

Abstract

Small business is an integral part of the region’s economy, and without its participation it is impossible to imagine the development of the region’s economy. Small business, with its mobility and wide coverage, contributes to the sustainable and sustainable development of the region’s economy. The relevance of the topic under study is due to the need to assess the impact of small business activities on regional socio-economic development. The purpose of the study is to analyze on the basis of ionometric modeling the state of future phenomena and processes in the activities of small businesses in Surkhandarya region. To achieve this goal, the methods of statistical and econometric analysis were used in the article, in which, based on indicators representing the development of small entrepreneurship, GRP, as well as the Arima model (an autoregressive econometric model integrated into the moving average of the gretl software package), the relationship between effective and factor indicators in quantitative and qualitative forecasting of proposals and recommendations is analyzed.