Increasing economic losses from natural disasters as a last decade trend

Don State Technical University”, 1, Rostov-on-Don, Rostov Region, 344002, Russia

^* Corresponding author: oa_yureva@mail.ru

Abstract

Two main methods were used for this article: individual regression analyses on historical data and a three-stage methodology to estimate direct losses, sector losses, and GDP losses that are attributable to natural disasters. The paper analyses using data from the insurance company Swiss Re on economic losses from natural disasters in recent years. In addition, statistics for 20 years (2002-2022) collected by CRED and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) are analysed. The global losses from natural disasters in the last ten years are also assessed. An upward trend in the annual increase of global economic damage from natural disasters is identified. The largest natural disasters in the world in terms of economic damage 2013-2022 are considered in detail. The data of damage from the listed natural disasters are compared with the economic damage from the earthquake in Turkey in 2023. The article considers the indicator of economic damage caused by natural disasters by region and concludes that it is heterogeneous. The correlation of economic losses of countries with the highest economic losses from natural disasters in the last 20 years with their level of GDP is examined. The World Bank’s estimate of annual damage from natural disasters is given. The conclusion gives a forecast for the period from 2022 to 2050 by Ortec Finance to estimate the direct losses, sector losses, and GDP losses that are attributable to natural disasters. Also in the conclusion, confirms the trend of recent decades is the increase in the magnitude of economic losses from natural disasters of global nature, which supports the hypothesis of the study. The conclusion gives a forecast of increase in economic losses from natural disasters in the near future.