Generalized assessment of region environmental state based on mathematico-cartographic modeling with GIS

^* Corresponding author: v.belogurov@gmail.com

Abstract

The developed methodology features an uneven distribution of indicator parameters in classes, based on principles of regulation and ecological laws. The problem is solved by the innovative method of mathematico-cartographic modeling, based on GIS-technology using the Geostatistical Analysis ArcGIS. All models are tested according to the Belogurov's RR-criterion of model suitability. Among the many logistic functions, the one for which the rules for the allocation of 5 classes are established, is selected. Mathematical analysis of the expression for the logistic curve made it possible to propose the new authors expression for its description. It contains such parameters as the values of the middle and width of the increasing section of this curve and its maximum value. This set is more visible and convenient for assessing the environmental state. It also corresponds to the typical pollution levels accepted by the Hydro meteorological Service: high and extremely high pollution levels. The maximum efforts and means to improve on the environmental state will be devoted to the first signs of high pollution, preventing the transition from class 2 to class 3. A well-reasoned concept of creating systems for monitoring dangerous trends and managing enterprises in accordance with mining safety conditions has been developed.