Predicting future salinity variability in the Ca Mau Peninsula due to Climate Change

¹ Laboratory of Environmental Sciences and Climate Change, Institute for Computational Science and Artificial Intelligence, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
² Faculty of Environment, School of Technology, Van Lang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
³ School of Biological and Environmental Science, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool L3 3AF, United Kingdom
⁴ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Carolina, SC 29208, USA
⁵ Independent Researcher, Melbourne, Australia

^* Email: phong.nguyenthanh@vlu.edu.vn

Abstract

The Ca Mau Peninsula (CMP) in Vietnam’s Lower Mekong Delta faces pressing challenges, including sea-level rise (SLR), land subsidence, flooding, and saltwater intrusion. Recent years have witnessed an earlier and more severe dry season, leading to heightened saltwater intrusion. As many CMP provinces rely on the Mekong River for their water supply, they are highly susceptible to prolonged drought and salinization. This study employs the MIKE 11 hydraulic model to project saltwater intrusion scenarios in the CMP up to 2050, based on Vietnam’s 2016 Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) SLR projections, considering water regulation from the Cai Lon-Cai Be sluice system. The modelled discharge, water level and salinity were calibrated and validated successfully based on di_erent statistical measures. The projections indicate that saltwater intrusion during the dry season could start 1 to 1.5 months earlier by 2050, with salinity levels exceeding 30 g/l in February. The findings underscore the importance of developing adaptation strategies to address the challenges of climate change and saltwater intrusion, notably in the region’s significant agricultural sector.