Study on prediction and influencing factors of energy consumption in Jiangxi province

School of Information Engineering, Jingdezhen University, Jingdezhen, 333000, China

E-mail: 375473215@qq.com

Abstract

This study aims to determine the main factors affecting energy consumption in Jiangxi Province, and to forecast energy consumption effectively. An indicator system of energy consumption influencing factors containing 17 variables is constructed from 4 aspects of economy, society, technology and energy. Based on relevant data from 1996 to 2021, conduct comprehensive analysis and select 10 main factors. Establish three energy consumption prediction models: multiple regression model (MLR), time series model (ARIMA), and support vector regression (SVR). Evaluate the prediction performance through mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and goodness of fit (R2). The main influencing factors of energy consumption are determined as GDP, output value of the tertiary industry, industrial output value, residents’ consumption level, fixed assets investment of the whole society, total population, urbanization rate, internal expenditure of R&D funds, energy intensity, and energy consumption structure. The best prediction model is SVR model. It provides a basis for the effective formulation of energy policies and the implementation of economic development programs.