Experience in the application of computer modeling in the development of oil fields under conditions of uncertainty

Institute of Oil and Gas FSBEI of HE "Ufa State Petroleum Technological University", (Branch in the City of Oktyabrsky), 54a, Devonskaya Street, Oktyabrsky, Republic of Bashkortostan, 452607, Russian Federation

^* Corresponding author: vsh@of.ugntu.ru

Abstract

The work is devoted to solving one of the urgent problems of computer modeling of oil field development processes – reducing the influence of a high level of uncertainty and disequilibrium of geological and field parameters on the effectiveness of management decision-making. Using various types of data on deposits of carbonate reservoirs, a general assessment of the possibility of introducing statistical indicators was made and their influence was revealed both on the percentage of correctly grouped objects in discriminant analysis and on the contribution to the total value of variance according to factor analysis data. Statistical indicators are ranked according to the presented criteria, based on which the boundaries of the use of each of them in various modeling options are reliably established. Additionally, a high level of correlation has been established between the standard deviations of porosity according to geophysical and laboratory studies and fracturing of objects. Conclusions are drawn about the possibility of applying the results obtained in the construction of multi-level regression models.