Time series analysis of atmospheric-driven hydromechanical history of soft soil geo-structures

¹ Delft University of Technology, Department of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Stevinweg 1, 2628CN Delft, the Netherlands
² Politecnico di Milano, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano, Italy

^* Corresponding author: w.j.dewolf@tudelft.nl

Abstract

Changing climatic conditions present an emerging threat to geo-structures. Climatic scenarios for the Netherlands indicate rising temperatures and larger variations in the atmospheric water balance. Consequently, geo-structures will be subjected to greater annual pore pressure variations and unprecedented stress levels. A particular concern is the impact of these changing conditions on the geotechnical performance of regional dykes, which are composed of and founded on organic soft soil layers susceptible to degradation. Given that changes in weather patterns are already observable, investigation of current in-situ soil state variations can provide valuable insight into the geotechnical response under future intensified environmental conditions. This study analyses in-situ monitoring data from a shallow-slope dyke system in the Netherlands to assess the persistence of atmospheric-driven pore pressure fluctuations in the dyke body and foundation layers. By correlating local weather conditions with soil response, the study identifies atmospheric events that trigger temporary or permanent variations in soil state, providing a guidance to address the consequences of possible future climatic events, which may compromise the geotechnical performance of soft soil dykes.