Energy input-output relationship in a projected climate change scenario

¹ The Institute of Economics after M. Kotanyan of the National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia, 15 Grigor Lusavorich Str., Yerevan 0015, Armenia
² Armenian National Agrarian University, Faculty of Agribusiness and Economics, 74 Teryan Str., Yerevan 0009, Armenia
³ Yerevan State College of Light Industry, 2 Glinka Str., Yerevan 0005, Armenia
⁴ Armenian State University of Economics, Chair of Theory of Economics, 128 Nalbandyan Str., Yerevan 0025, Armenia

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

Armenian agriculture, with particular emphasis on viticulture, faces significant vulnerability to climate change impacts. This study examines climate change effects on energy consumption efficiency in viticultural practices across Armavir and Vayots Dzor regions. Empirical research methods, including surveys of 60 agricultural households, were employed to analyze key energy efficiency metrics: Energy Ratio, Productivity, and Labor Productivity. Energy input-output relationships were projected for 2030 climate scenarios using intuitive forecasting methods. The investigation focuses on establishing correlations between economic indicators (Energy Ratio, Productivity, Direct-Indirect energy ratio, Labor productivity) and environmental parameters (Renewable-Non-renewable energy ratio). Findings reveal substantial climate impacts on labor productivity, irrigation requirements, and production yields within grape cultivation energy balances. The analysis identifies critical adaptive measures including drip irrigation implementation, mechanization advancement, and adoption of climate-resistant grape varieties. Through systematic categorization of energy inputs into direct-indirect and renewable-non-renewable classifications, the study provides evidence-based recommendations for sustainable viticulture development. While results demonstrate negative climate influences, they simultaneously highlight the necessity for technological innovation and intensified agricultural interventions to maintain viable grape production under changing climatic conditions.