Fossil Energy Resilience in a Changing Climate: Risk Analysis, Strategies, and Practical Plan

¹ Alumna, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Brawijaya University, Malang, Indonesia
² Alumni, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Planning, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology, Surabaya, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: berlianadewibalqis@gmail.com

Abstract

Climate change is a global phenomenon driven by increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, resulting in various environmental impacts. Its effects include increasing global temperatures, which manifest as tangible physical risks such as sea-level rise, land subsidence, and extreme weather events. These phenomena can damage infrastructure, trigger oil spills, contribute to environmental pollution, and generate other detrimental impacts. Numerous studies emphasize that the physical risks posed by climate change have become a central focus in sustainable management within the oil and gas (O&G) industry. The O&G is projected to remain a necessary component of the energy mix for several decades, alongside the development of new and renewable energy (NRE), to ensure national energy security during the transition toward Net Zero Emissions (NZE). This study adopts a qualitative approach to examine the resilience of the O&G industry in addressing climate-related risks. The findings include a risk analysis framework, the development of physical and policy strategies, and potential adaptation scenarios implementable by the industry. These results highlight the urgency of proactive climate adaptation efforts to ensure the long-term sustainability of the O&G sector in the coming decades while supporting Indonesia’s transition to NZE.