Analysis of the impact of overheating on public health in the Mediterranean region

Renewable & Sustainable Energy Lab, School of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, GR 73100, Crete

^* Corresponding author: ttsoutsos@tuc.gr

Abstract

Climate change is among the most significant challenges for the next years. Global warming, increased temperatures, heatwaves and urban overheating are among its consequences. European Union (EU) and especially the Mediterranean cities have suffered from increased temperatures and overheating during the last decades. EU Cooling Degree Days have increased by more than 170% since 1979. This can be an important risk for vulnerable populations and public health. This paper investigates the correlation between mortality rates and overheating in the regions of Mediterranean countries for the period 2011-2021 by calculating R-squared values and use them as a statistical index, using the official Eurostat data. In continuation, it develops region typologies based on correlation degrees and specific geographic and climate characteristics. Findings showed that the R-squared values are higher (even more than 0.8) for landlocked regions with a continental climate. In addition, urbanisation level seems to be another factor making cities more vulnerable to overheating. More significant effect is observed in the period before the COVID-19 crisis. Finally, energy poverty phenomenon could also affect the correlation degree of a region. This analysis could help in planning climate change adaptation policies in the forthcoming years, focusing on regions presenting a higher vulnerability level.