Proposed sugar self-sufficiency policy in Indonesia using system dynamics

Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Andalas, Padang, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: eri_wirdianto@eng.unand.ac.id

Abstract

Food security is critical to disaster risk reduction and national resilience, especially in countries dependent on imported staple commodities. In Indonesia, sugar is one of the nine essential foods, yet the country’s import dependency ratio remains high 64.79% to 75.01% despite substantial domestic production. This condition increases vulnerability to global shocks, including climate disruptions and export restrictions by supplier countries. This study proposes policy interventions to achieve sugar self-sufficiency by 2030 using a system dynamics approach, a simulation-based method for analyzing complex systems over time. A dynamic model was developed to represent the national sugar supply system, covering upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors. Parameters were estimated through regression analysis and rational assumptions, with expert and mathematical validation. Baseline simulations show that the Self-sufficiency Ratio (SSR), defined as the share of domestic production to total consumption, remains below 80% under current conditions. Scenario analysis highlights sugar content and productivity in state-owned plantations as leverage points. A combined intervention on both variables increases the SSR to 101.66% by 2030, indicating full national sugar self-sufficiency. This research provides a strategic framework for policymakers to reduce import dependence and strengthen food security through targeted intensification in state-managed agriculture.