Association between climate fluctuations and dengue fever outbreaks in Surakarta (2023–2024)

Department of Internal Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Sebelas Maret University, Surakarta, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: evi.nurhayatun@staff.uns.ac.id

Abstract

Dengue fever is a persistent public health challenge in tropical regions, where climate variability influences vector dynamics and transmission. This study investigates the association between climate fluctuations and dengue outbreaks in Surakarta during 2023–2024. This study used an ecological research design with secondary data on dengue fever incidence, rainfall, air temperature and humidity from 2023 to 2024. Secondary data was obtained from the Surakarta City Statistics Centre. The Pearson statistical test was performed to assess the differences between variables. This study found that dengue fever incidence is associated with climate variables such as rainfall intensity (p = 0.01 and r = 1.000), air temperature (p = 0.01 and r = 1.000) and air humidity (p=0.01 and r = 1.000). Elevated humidity further supported vector proliferation and was significantly associated with outbreak intensity. Temperature fluctuations showed weaker but noteworthy effects on disease incidence. These findings suggest that rainfall, air temperature and air humidity are critical drivers of dengue transmission in Surakarta City. In conclusion, rainfall intensity, air temperature and air humidity are associated with dengue fever outbreaks in Surakarta City from 2023 to 2024. Early warning systems incorporating meteorological data may enhance outbreak prediction and improve public health preparedness.