Preliminary Techno-Economic Analysis of Wind Power Plant Development in Central Java

Universitas Prasetiya Mulya, Department of Renewable Energy Engineering, Jl. BSD Raya Utama, BSD City, Banten 15339, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

The wind energy potential in Central Java offers promising opportunities for utility-scale wind power development. This study evaluates the techno-economic feasibility of four candidate sites using the System Advisor Model, analyzing turbine capacities from 500 to 2000 kW and total plant capacities of 30, 50, and 70 MW. Technical assessments include wind resource analysis, turbine layout design, and system loss estimation. Wlahar Village in Brebes emerges as the most promising site, with an average wind speed of 6.2 m/s and a net capacity factor of 37%. Two financing structures were compared: a 70% debt scheme and a conservative DSCR-targeted approach. Although the 70% debt model yields attractive metrics (LCOE 5.62 ¢/kWh, NPV USD 71.95 million, IRR 9.38%), it is financially unfeasible due to a low DSCR of 0.62. In contrast, the conservative scheme, designed to meet a minimum DSCR of 1.25, achieves a viable NPV of USD 61.31 million and an IRR of 7.05%. Grid connection costs increase total capital expenditure by approximately 1.46% but do not significantly affect feasibility. Overall, Wlahar demonstrates strong technical performance and economic viability under conservative financing assumptions, supporting its potential for wind power development in Central Java.