Adapting to climate change: Projections and strategies for the Progo River, Indonesia

¹ Department of Geological Engineering, Institut Teknologi Nasional Yogyakarta, Indonesia
² Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Southeastern Philippines, Philippines
³ College of Environmental Studies, Marinduque State University, Philippines
⁴ Department of Environmental Science, College of Agriculture, Life, and Environmental Science, University of Arizona, USA
⁵ Department of Geology, University of Patras, Greece
⁶ Badan Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG), Jakarta, Indonesia
⁷ Sekolah Tinggi Meteorologi Klimatologi dan Geofisika (STMKG), Tangerang, Indonesia

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

Global climate change is projected to be significant and long-lasting in the 21st century, driven by rising greenhouse gas emissions from human activities. Reliable projections are crucial for reducing negative impacts, assessing water balance, managing water resources, and preparing for extreme hydrological events. This study examines the Progo River in Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta (DIY), Indonesia, which drains about 17,432 km² and is essential for regional irrigation. Climate data from the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal were analyzed, including projected daily maximum temperature (Tmax) for 1950-2100, climatology of the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) for 2020-2039, annual precipitation for 1950-2100, and climatology of monthly precipitation for 2020-2039. All datasets are derived from CMIP6 simulations. Results indicate that while precipitation patterns are expected to remain relatively stable, temperatures in DIY will rise in the coming decades. Higher temperatures may increase evaporation, raising drought risks. To address these challenges, authorities should prioritize adaptation strategies, including river and floodplain rehabilitation, restoration of riparian buffers, integrated surface and groundwater management, conservation agriculture, and drought early warning systems.