On Particulate Matter and Direct Irradiation as Confounding Factors on the Prediction of Viruses Viability and Spread: The Meaningful Case of the SARS-CoV-2 Diffusion in Italy

¹ Department of Enterprise Engineering, Tor Vergata University of Rome, Italy
² Department of Aeronautical, Electrical and Energy Engineering, Sapienza University of Rome, Italy

^* Corresponding author: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Abstract

Climate change and air pollutants are increasingly stressing our environment; among other consequences, this increases the need for deeper insights into how epidemiological patterns respond to these factors, as dramatically shown in recent years. Parameters such as temperature and humidity have been identified as the main drivers of both indoor and outdoor viruses viability. In this context, the present paper proposes a general framework to define and quantify two corrective coefficients capturing the combined effects of particulate matter and solar ultraviolet radiation levels as confounding factors in virus diffusion detection. This is particularly relevant within the framework of the Enthalpy Method, an approach introduced in 2020 for pandemic risk assessments based on the combined values of inner temperature and humidity. The presented results, based on the case of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy - a recognized unique setting in terms of data extent, reliability, and climatic range - indicate that air pollution levels alone played a major role in fine-tuning Incidence Rate (IR) predictions, while sunlight was also found to significantly improve IR predictions, although to a lesser extent than PM₁₀ when considered individually. The inferred interaction between the two correction coefficients is examined from a comprehensive perspective, leading to suggestions for tailored evaluations in different contexts.